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Prediction for CME (2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-12T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30004/-1
CME Note: Faint halo visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is a filament eruption centered around S15W20 with liftoff starting around 2024-04-12T00:16Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and a faint EUV wave may also be observed in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also seen south of disk center from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery. ARRIVAL: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-04-16T09:20Z to 12nT at 10:07Z. A subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~360 km/s at 07:34Z to 410 km/s at 07:59Z. This was accompanied by a slight increase in density as well, reaching 16 N(cm^-3) at 09:36Z. However, ACE contains spurious density data points around this time so the density data is more speculative than the other solar wind parameters. This arrival signature may have partially overlapoed with the arrival of CME: 2024-04-11T07:00Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-16T09:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-14T15:05Z (-7.67h, +7.67h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): 4.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35

initial CME speed: 743.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2024-04-12T06:05Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 66.78 hour(s)
Difference: 42.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-04-13T14:33Z

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